Penge vs Lingmerth/Salinda

Penge to win 1st day 3-ball at 1.83 The recent form is the biggest reason. Penge has finished T6, T18 and T10 in his last three starts, and PGA Tour analysis notes that he gained strokes off the tee, on approach and putting in all three. That is exactly the sort of form we want in a 3-ball; you´re not relying on one fluky putting performance. Black Desert suits his biggest weapon - driving. Penge is averaging 324 yards, 5th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, and ranks 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee (+0.543 over his last five). Black Desert is a 7,421 yard par 71, so the ability to generate short approaches is particularly useful. He´s an excellent birdie-maker for this particular setup. PGA Tour´s course preview ranks Penge 5th in the field for birdie-or-better percentage. The course analysis specifically highlights the importance of continually creating birdie opportunities rather than simply being an elite putter. That´s important because 3-ball is essentially a birdie race. You don´t need Penge to have a great four-day tournament; you need him to produce a low score for one day. Salinda´s recent underlying numbers aren´t particularly attractive. Salinda has been solid off the tee (+0.310 SG:OTT over his last five), but his last-five SG Total is -0.809, with -0.296 around the green and -0.900 putting. Lingmerth is the one we´d be most comfortable fading. His recent stretch is ugly: five consecutive missed cuts before this event, and over his last five starts he was averaging -2.194 SG: Approach, -0.338 OTT and -0.239 around the green. Starts with zero chance.